Saturday, June 14, 2008

Pressure Points in the Bank Bust

Standard & Poor announced in late May it has cut or might cut debt ratings on $34 billion of securities tied to Alt-A mortgages, whose type issued in 2007 have a default rate to 6.64% for 90 days late as of end April. Massive S&P downgrades might soon force Wall Street firms to move up to $5000 billion of assets from off-balance sheet locations back onto their books. The bank sector has so far seen very little in bank failures, compared to past cycles.
The Texas Ratio is calculated by dividing non-performing loans at a bank, including those 90 days delinquent, by their tangible equity capital plus money set aside for future loan losses. Using this ratio, IndyMac Bancorp, Sterling Financial, Corus Bankshares, Imperial Capital Bancorp, and GMAC Bank are all on the verge of busts. Look for these banks to possibly lead the list of failures, each with unique vulnerabilities.
Many of the regional and other private banks scattered across the United States are in deep trouble. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) has declared 76 banks as official ‘Troubled’ in a rise from the 50 declared with similar status at the end of year 2006. Joining the breakdown of the big banking stock index BKX breakdown in progress is the breakdown of the regional bank stock index RKH. It has fallen below the pennant pause pattern. The word CONTAGION comes to mind, the nightmare for USFed officials. The worst lies directly ahead for banks and stated losses. All propaganda will be unmasked very soon. Panic might set in within a few months time.

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